Warning that the United States, Canada and Europe are in the midst of a media frenzy over the spread of avian flu, Alex Tabb, director of the crisis and continuity services practice at TABB Group, explained in his keynote speech to an overflowing audience at a business continuity and corporate security industry conference, that "managed transition, based on the avian flu preparedness plan used by the World Health Organization (WHO), can mitigate the risks of a pandemic flu outbreak if or when it does strike."

"We know avian flu's out there," said Tabb. "We don't know if or when it will strike the United States, but like Katrina, the Asian tsunami and the London and Madrid bomb blasts, the potential economic impact that the pandemic can wreak on retail and investment banking, securities and insurance firms in the US and Europe would be long lasting. What we need to do right now is understand what a pandemic is, what it isn't and get a better grasp of the essential issues."

While the media have focused their recent attention on the spread of the H5N1 avian flu strain from Asia to the Middle East, Tabb recommends using a managed transition approach to planning. "Retail banks, insurance carriers, brokers and trading firms need to use the unique nature of a pandemic to plan correctly. We are looking at a six-phase approach linked to the WHO global pandemic preparedness plan as triggers to initiate the correct actions to limit the economic impact on customers as well as shareholders."

According to Tabb, the WHO preparedness plan is available at www.who.int/csr/resources/ publications/ influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_2005_5/en/. To initiate planning efforts across the enterprise, Tabb explained that phase three, animal-to-animal spread with limited animal to human spread, already a reality, should trigger collection of data and creating plans. Phase four, small clusters of human-to-human spread, should lead to an increase in technology provisioning, testing of existing assumptions, reworking of plans based on testing and ensuring ample medical precautions are in place. Phase five, large clusters of human-to-human spread, should signal firms to begin the transition from a normal work environment to a "socially-distanced work environment. At phase six, pandemic, the completed transition to the socially distanced work environment should be fully in place.

Noting that the financial services industry is growing more complex, Tabb emphasized that business continuity planning "must keep up" and that C-level executives should not shy away from the basics, that "a strong foundation based on solid pragmatic planning will go a long way to ensure continuity. Moreover, be flexible as there are no set answers, only diminishing budgets. If you aren't prepared to do more with less, do so at your own peril."

Alex Tabb is an authority on business continuity, international security, supply chain security, travel safety and security, anti-terrorism and crisis management. He joined TABB Group in 2004 from Kroll Inc., where he was the associate managing director of their security services group. Prior to joining Kroll in 2001, he spent 12 years in the United States Foreign Service. As a Foreign Service officer and a diplomat in the United States Department of State, he served in Lusaka, Zambia, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, Tuzla, Bosnia-Herzegovina and New York.

About TABB Group
TABB Group is the data-driven research and advisory firm that provides strategic insight for market leaders in the financial industry. Based in Westborough, Massachusetts with offices in New York, TABB Group was founded in June 2003 by Larry Tabb, the 25-year financial markets veteran with research leadership experience across the capital markets, investment management, retail brokerage and wealth management segments. For more information, visit www.tabbgroup.com.